2025 Housing Study
Fairfield County and Lancaster commissioned this study to answer a practical question: as jobs and residents arrive, can housing keep up without pricing out the workforce or consuming the farmland that defines the county? It was prepared by the Fairfield County Department of Economic Development, the City of Lancaster and the Lancaster Port Authority, with Ninigret Partners and Planning NEXT, and published November 25, 2025.
- 5,200Net new housing units needed by 2035
- 21,000Additional residents forecast by 2035
- 60,000Housing units in the county today
- 3%Vacancy rate, against a healthy 5–7%
- 16,000Households headed by someone 65 or older
- 10,000Older units likely to change hands in 10–15 years
What the study found
Growth is coming, and the market has no slack
State and Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission forecasts put an additional 21,000 people in the county by 2035, roughly 5,200 new households. Meeting that demand while keeping prices stable calls for about 5,200 net new units, primarily single family. Today only three percent of the housing stock is vacant and homes are going pending in about a week; a price-stable market normally carries five to seven percent.
The population and the housing stock are aging together
There are 16,000 households with occupants over 65, including 13,000 homeowners and 3,000 renters. Sixty-six percent of that group lives in housing built before 1990, and 4,900 live in housing built before 1970. Half of all county homeowners are over 55. Researchers estimate 10,000 older units could change ownership over the next 10 to 15 years, more than the number of new homes forecast in the same period, and roughly 31,000 units will need substantial rehabilitation.
Affordability breaks along age and tenure, not geography alone
Cost burden concentrates among households 65 and older and among very low-income renters, groups with average incomes below $35,000. Nearly 24 percent of county households, about 15,000, spend 30 percent or more of income on housing: 17 percent of homeowners against 47 percent of renters. The county median household income is $87,069; Lancaster's is $54,901, inside the 2024 affordability thresholds. The income level that historically carried a household from renting to owning, around $40,000 to $50,000, no longer clears current prices.
Rental compression is pushing renters up-market
There are more renters than units at several price points, so households bid into more expensive rentals and rents rise across the lower-quality stock. The gap is sharpest for renters earning $50,000 to $74,999, short roughly 2,241 units, and for those earning $100,000 to $149,999, short about 1,615. Closing the very low-income gap of about 1,200 units would take an estimated $300 million to $450 million in subsidy. Naturally occurring affordable housing, older units that are simply less expensive, is a central part of any answer because new construction cannot reach those rents.
Housing need in numbers
| Need | Units | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast population growth | ~600 per year | Includes the surplus required for price stability |
| Demographic shifts | ~500 per year | Divorce, downsizing, inability to remain at home |
| Low-income affordability | 1,200 total | Multi-year; requires deep subsidy |
| Assisted living | 350–450 by 2035 | 35 to 45 units annually; 941 certified units exist today |
| Rehabilitation or replacement | 600 | Single-family units in poor to unsound condition |
| Condition watch list | 2,600 | Rated fair; about 26 slip into poor condition each year |
Housing and school enrollment
The assumption that new housing floods the schools does not hold here. Since 2010 county population grew 21,000, or 14.5 percent, and housing units grew about 8,000, or 14.8 percent, while public school enrollment rose by fewer than 600 students, a two percent increase. In the Lancaster district, multifamily housing yields 23 students per 100 units overall and only 6 students per 100 units in developments built since 2012. Single-family housing yields 38 per 100 units. Unit size and bedroom count drive student yield far more than unit count does.
Lancaster's role
Lancaster holds about 18,600 housing units, 29 percent of the county stock, and 47 percent of its rentals. Fifty-seven percent of Lancaster households own their homes against 74 percent countywide, and 36 percent of households are people living alone against 23 percent countywide. Seventy percent of the city's housing was built before 1980, compared with 47 percent countywide, and 2,400 owner-occupied pre-1980 homes belong to households over 65. Sixty-three percent of the county's naturally occurring affordable rentals are in Lancaster. Holding its 28 percent share of county households would mean adding at least 135 units a year through 2035.
The city's concentration of ranch-style homes is an asset for aging in place, since single-level layouts adapt more easily for accessibility. Condition and maintenance are the open questions.
What the study recommends
- Promote housing diversity and flexibility. New development should adapt as demand shifts rather than serve one demographic. Give developers examples of project types that work.
- Attack the cost structure of construction. Land costs, entitlement and permitting timelines, infrastructure, construction method, cost of capital and rate of return each have tools: land banks, pre-permitted approvals, fee waivers, pattern books, scattered-site TIF for infill, county bonding.
- Adopt a missing middle housing policy. Start with an audit of zoning, building codes and infrastructure fees, then work with developers on what actually blocks these projects.
- Create a NOAH program. Preserve naturally occurring affordable housing through targeted acquisition, code enforcement, rehabilitation funding and alternative ownership models.
- Rehabilitate older housing. Revisit setbacks, lot coverage, height limits, parking and density so older homes and homesites stay competitive, easing pressure to build on farmland.
- Organize the resources. Decide which entity champions proactive development, whether the community action agency, a community improvement or development corporation, or the Port Authority.
Who prepared the study
Prepared by the Fairfield County Department of Economic Development, the City of Lancaster and the Lancaster Port Authority, with assistance from Ninigret Partners and Planning NEXT. The working group included representatives of Fairfield County Economic Development, Fairfield County Job and Family Services, the Fairfield County Regional Planning Commission, the cities of Lancaster, Pickerington and Canal Winchester, the Lancaster-Fairfield Community Action Agency and the Lancaster Port Authority.
Funding parties: the Building Industry Association of Central Ohio, Columbus Board of Realtors, Fairfield County Commissioners, Fairfield Homes, Inc., City of Lancaster, Lancaster Board of Realtors, Lancaster Fairfield Community Action Agency, Lancaster Port Authority, LDG Development, Metro Development LLC and Vision Companies.
Download the full study (PDF, 82 pages)